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Sack the manager, lengthen the odds

Updated at 2017-07-18 08:22:30 UTC

with the club stating they were after a replacement ‘with more managerial experience’. How does this affect a team’s performance and should you avoid bet on sports? The timing couldn’t have been worse. Such a decision would be less of a surprise near the end of a season, or half way through the summer break, but 16 games into the season? There’s bound to be an impact in the busy Christmas and New Year period of matches - this might not happen straight away, but the building pressure could take a toll. The popularity of the departed manager will also have a bearing on the next manager’s early success – Hughton was both liked and respected, so this gives the replacement a more difficult task. ...and yet there are a couple of possible benefits to a team’s performance when the manager changes; The new manager honeymoon period.  A new beginning takes the pressure off and the team will feel uplifted at putting the turmoil behind them. Often this wears off after one or two games and there’s a mini reversal as the manager-team relationship takes time to build. Getting rid of dead wood. This reinvigorates some players and alienates others but the net effect should be positive. But if the board are pulling the strings can a manager actually follow through with their first choice decisions? In the interim, whilst you have a temporary manager and the press is arguing over the shortlist, the team can be unsettled and fans get disgruntled. Protracted indecision makes matters worse and uncertainty is a big sell signal to the betting markets. However, watch out for a period where a manager-less team is written off as the total underdog; if the players have some camaraderie then they’ll give a bit extra in these situations. The key to betting on teams with a managerial vacancy is to know how morale has been affected and to look for a bounce when the stress lifts. The odds are likely to under-value a team in this situation, so be ready to notice signs of a side getting to terms with the new regime.

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